Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $95.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.5%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -17.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward income of about 2.0% on the standardised measure rather than the inflated trailing figure, sustainable earnings growth of about 6% from reflation and payout reform, and a multiple change of about -2.5 points reflecting the modeled fair-value gap; dispersion widened for the unhedged yen translation faced by a dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year annualised total return with continued payout and buyback expansion, a partial further improvement in return on equity, and a larger share of the fair-value gap assumed to close.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 5.5% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by only 1.01 percentage points, against a return distribution whose tenth percentile is -17.5%. The one-year Treasury offers a broadly competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $47.47 | +7.0% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $108.07 | +6.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -1.6Expensive | 91.0 | $102.71 | +5.5% |
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -1.7Expensive | 90.0 | $95.43 | +5.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | -1.7Expensive | 90.0 | $59.83 | +7.0% |