Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 85.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.0
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- Last close
- $28.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -16.5%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward income of about 3.6%, which is the highest of any equity class here, sustainable earnings growth of about 4.5% reflecting slower structural growth and a bank-heavy index, and a multiple change of about -3.5 points reflecting the widest modeled fair-value gap of any equity class.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year annualised total return with a larger share of the fair-value gap assumed to close, bank returns on equity partially normalised, and resource earnings held at the levels implied by the metals conclusions elsewhere in this report.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +0.0%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 4.5% is essentially level with the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield. Of every asset class in this report, this is the one where cash offers the most directly competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.