Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 44.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $46.59
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +48.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -24.5%
- P10
- -53.5%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry is available, so the distribution is built entirely from a partial reversion of the market-value-to-realised-value ratio toward its long-run average, with dispersion set from this asset's own realised return variability. The ranges are intentionally the widest in this report and the confidence the lowest.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year annualised total return allowing a fuller reversion of the valuation ratio and continued low issuance, with no assumption that prior cycle extremes repeat.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 8.0% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by 3.51 percentage points, but the tenth percentile of the one-year distribution is -53.5%. On a risk-adjusted basis the one-year Treasury offers a competitive return with incomparably lower uncertainty.