Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 53.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $91.44
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward distribution income of about 3.4%, adjusted funds-from-operations growth of about 4% after the refinancing drag, and a small negative multiple adjustment reflecting the modeled fair-value gap; dispersion set from listed property's own forward return variability, which is wider than broad equities because of the embedded leverage.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year annualised total return with the refinancing cost phased in across the 5.8-year average debt maturity, same-store net operating income growth partially normalised toward 3%, and the capitalisation-rate spread assumed to widen only part of the way to its historical average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 7.0% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by 2.51 percentage points. That edge is earned on an asset whose own implied capitalisation rate is only 0.60pp above the ten-year Treasury yield, so the margin for error on rates is thin.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $91.44 | +7.0% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +1.6Cheap | 108.0 | $89.38 | +9.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $25.89 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $41.99 | +6.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $17.55 | +8.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -2.1Expensive | 88.0 | $28.15 | +5.0% |