China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 33.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 110.0
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- Last close
- $51.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.5%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -7.5%
- P10
- -23.5%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward income of about 2.3%, sustainable earnings growth of about 8% after a policy-risk haircut to the consensus path, and roughly a fifth of the fair-value gap assumed to close over the year; dispersion set from this market's own forward return variability, which is the second widest among the equity classes here.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year annualised total return with a larger share of the fair-value gap assumed to close, partial normalisation of the discount to broad emerging markets, and no assumption that the geopolitical risk premium disappears.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +5.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 10.0% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by 5.51 percentage points, the widest modeled edge in this report. It is also the edge with the widest loss tail: the tenth percentile of the one-year return distribution is -23.5%.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 110.0 | $51.69 | +10.0% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 113.0 | $24.61 | +11.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 112.0 | $34.26 | +10.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 112.0 | $25.02 | +10.5% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 112.0 | $16.26 | +10.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $22.08 | +9.5% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $41.98 | +10.0% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $4.05 | +10.5% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +0.3Fair | 103.0 | $31.49 | +8.0% |