US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $771.79
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 1.1%, earnings growth of about 7% after a two to three point haircut to the roughly 10% consensus path for next year, and a multiple change of about -2 points from assuming roughly a quarter of the modeled fair-value gap closes within the year. Dispersion is set from a 15% to 17% forward annual return standard deviation, well above the current 9.6% twenty-session realised volatility, because realised volatility is a poor forward dispersion estimate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year annualised total return from a 1.1% dividend yield, a 6.5% earnings compound growth rate with partial margin normalisation, and roughly 2.7 points a year of multiple drag as more of the fair-value gap closes.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 6.0% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by 1.51 percentage points. That is a thin modeled edge for accepting a return distribution whose tenth percentile is -15%, and it is the direct consequence of a forward real risk premium of only about 2.5 percentage points.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $177.19 | +8.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $275.08 | +7.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $55.27 | +7.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $215.00 | +6.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $521.18 | +6.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.4Expensive | 93.0 | $167.89 | +5.5% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.0 | $771.79 | +6.0% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.9Expensive | 90.0 | $113.41 | +5.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.2Expensive | 88.0 | $728.00 | +6.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 84.0 | $558.84 | +5.0% |