Valuation Lens — September 24, 2026

Today's market price sits above the central modeled fair value in seven of eleven asset classes, with the 5.18% 10-year Treasury and a 2.85% 10-year real yield doing most of the work; real estate, Chinese equities and the broad bond market are the only classes whose central fair value sits at or above market.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 24, 2026Last market session Sep 24, 2026Data cutoff Sep 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.51%1y Treasury

A 4.51% one-year par yield sets a high cash hurdle while the 10-year at 5.18% and the 10-year real yield at 2.85% sit at the top of their ten-year ranges, raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration cash-flow asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Real EstateVNQ
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.191.7–106.5
Upside to median
+3.1%
1y modeled
+7.5%-11.0% to 19.5%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
105.175.0–115.3
Upside to median
+5.1%
1y modeled
+10.0%-24.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+5.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.397.9–102.3
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+5.5%-1.3% to 11.6%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.286.3–104.0
Upside to median
-2.8%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
MetalsGLD
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.083.5–104.5
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-19.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.091.5–101.2
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-13.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
88.877.1–113.7
Upside to median
-11.2%
1y modeled
+5.0%-45.0% to 78.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
83.673.4–101.2
Upside to median
-16.4%
1y modeled
+5.0%-22.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
87.178.8–100.0
Upside to median
-12.9%
1y modeled
-10.0%-33.0% to 19.0%
vs Treasury
-14.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
94.384.5–99.6
Upside to median
-5.7%
1y modeled
+8.0%-16.0% to 25.5%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
86.680.7–93.5
Upside to median
-13.4%
1y modeled
+2.5%-20.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-2.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-24, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Real Estate VNQ	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	103.1 91.7–106.5	+3.1%	+7.5% -11.0% to 19.5%	+3.0%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.3 Fair	105.1 75.0–115.3	+5.1%	+10.0% -24.0% to 38.0%	+5.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.1 Fair	100.3 97.9–102.3	+0.3%	+5.5% -1.3% to 11.6%	+1.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.2 86.3–104.0	-2.8%	+8.0% -15.0% to 25.0%	+3.5%
Metals GLD	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.0 83.5–104.5	-3.0%	+4.0% -19.0% to 23.0%	-0.5%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	95.0 91.5–101.2	-5.0%	+7.5% -13.0% to 23.0%	+3.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	88.8 77.1–113.7	-11.2%	+5.0% -45.0% to 78.0%	+0.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.4 Expensive	83.6 73.4–101.2	-16.4%	+5.0% -22.0% to 28.0%	+0.5%
Energy USO	-1.5 Expensive	87.1 78.8–100.0	-12.9%	-10.0% -33.0% to 19.0%	-14.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.6 Expensive	94.3 84.5–99.6	-5.7%	+8.0% -16.0% to 25.5%	+3.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.8 Expensive	86.6 80.7–93.5	-13.4%	+2.5% -20.0% to 22.0%	-2.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 39.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 50%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 79%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 67%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 26%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources20

1
Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and Real Yield Curve Rates
U.S. Department of the Treasury
2
Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1), market value of public corporate equities
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
3
National Income and Product Accounts (nominal GDP, corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
4
Consumer Price Index
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
6
National Financial Conditions Index
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
7
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
8
iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
9
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
10
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
11
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
12
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
13
iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF (USRT) fund profile
BlackRock / iShares
14
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
15
Quarterly REIT Performance Data
Nareit
16
Gold Demand Trends
World Gold Council
17
Gold Price Predictions for 2026 and 2027
J.P. Morgan Global Research
18
The Week On-chain, Week 38 2026 — Escape Velocity
Glassnode Insights
19
FactSet Earnings Insight, 18 September 2026
FactSet Research Systems
20
Premium / Discount to NAV research archive
Commercial Property Executive (S&P Global Market Intelligence data)

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_20260924_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.