Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 83.6
- Upside to median
- -16.4%
- Last close
- $59.87
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -22.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of -10% to +16%, a change in the justified forward multiple between 12.5x and 19.0x against roughly 18.0x today, and a 2.0% distribution yield. The downside case is driven by semiconductor margin normalisation rather than by any price-trend input.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -9.5%
Three-year annualised total return from earnings compounding at 1% to 14% a year, a terminal forward multiple between 13.0x and 18.0x and a 2.0% distribution yield, discounted at an 8.5% to 9.5% USD required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Roughly half a percentage point of modeled edge over the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield in exchange for the second-widest equity return range in the report. The Treasury currently offers a competitive expected return with far less uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.4Expensive | 83.6 | $59.87 | +5.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -1.7Expensive | 79.0 | $99.76 | +4.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -2.0Expensive | 74.0 | $113.08 | +2.0% |
| EWY South Korea Index | -1.9Expensive | 76.0 | $182.53 | +2.5% |
| INDA India Index | -1.3Expensive | 84.0 | $47.56 | +6.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.2Fair | 102.0 | $65.90 | +8.0% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $36.91 | +12.0% |