Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 39.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.1
- Upside to median
- +3.1%
- Last close
- $91.17
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into the 3.8% index dividend yield plus AFFO-per-share growth plus the price effect of a change in the implied capitalisation rate. Scenarios span a 50 basis-point cap-rate compression to a 150 basis-point expansion against the 5.18% 10-year Treasury yield.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year annualised total return from AFFO growth of 2% to 5% per year, a terminal implied cap rate between 6.25% and 7.75%, and reinvested distributions. Cash-flow growth dominates as the horizon lengthens and the starting cap-rate effect is amortised.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. REITs carry equity-like drawdown risk for roughly three percentage points of modeled annual edge over a nearly risk-free alternative.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.1 | $91.17 | +7.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $26.09 | +8.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.2Fair | 100.5 | $41.65 | +6.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +0.3Fair | 101.5 | $89.10 | +6.8% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $29.16 | +7.0% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | 0.0Fair | 99.0 | $18.92 | +9.5% |