Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $88.07
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of -4% to +12%, a change in the justified forward multiple between 11.8x and 15.5x against roughly 14.6x today, and a 2.6% distribution yield. Euro translation is treated as a symmetric unhedged exposure for a USD investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year annualised total return from earnings compounding at 4% to 8% a year, a terminal forward multiple between 13.0x and 14.5x and a 2.6% distribution yield, discounted at an 8.5% to 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. Europe carries the highest valuation confidence of any non-US equity class in this report, which makes the modest negative fair-value gap more informative than a wider gap elsewhere.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $88.07 | +7.5% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $68.20 | +7.3% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $47.16 | +9.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $41.87 | +8.0% |
| EWQ France Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $43.72 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | $60.44 | +6.0% |