Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.1
- Upside to median
- -12.9%
- Last close
- $153.09
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -10.0%
- P25
- -21.0%
- P10
- -33.0%
33% of modeled scenarios end positive.
One-year total return for a front-month crude vehicle, combining convergence toward the EIA 2027 Brent path with the negative roll yield implied by a declining forward curve. The upside case is persistence or escalation of the Middle East export disruption that lifted the second-half 2026 forecast by USD 8 a barrel.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Three-year annualised return anchored on convergence to a marginal-cost-based sustainable price in the low to mid seventies with a continuing negative roll drag on the front-month vehicle. No carry or cash-flow anchor is available for the commodity sleeve.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- -14.5%
- Basis
- direct
The only materially negative modeled edge in the report. Against a 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield, the front-month crude vehicle carries a modeled one-year median of minus 10%, and the negative roll yield is a structural rather than a cyclical drag.