Metals
Today’s price sits at the 56.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $391.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-only total return for a non-cash-flow asset, with storage and expense carry treated as a small negative. Scenarios span continued record official-sector accumulation against the drag from a 2.85% 10-year real yield at its ten-year high.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -9.0%
Three-year annualised price return anchored on the real gold price versus real-yield relationship with partial normalisation, plus a structural official-sector demand offset. No cash-flow compounding is available, which is why the three-year range does not narrow the way it does for bonds or equities.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year return is slightly below the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield. On a pure risk-and-reward basis the Treasury currently offers a competitive expected return with materially less uncertainty; gold's case here is diversification, not expected return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $391.69 | +4.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $92.35 | +7.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $60.80 | +4.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $25.93 | +0.5% |
| CPER Copper | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 91.0 | $40.65 | 0.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 88.0 | $15.90 | +1.0% |
| SLV Silver | -1.4Expensive | 82.0 | $57.62 | -2.0% |