Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.8
- Upside to median
- -11.2%
- Last close
- $47.81
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-only total return with no cash-flow anchor. The distribution is set by the range between the aggregate cost basis and the long-term-average market-value-to-realized-value price, widened for the historical dispersion of one-year crypto outcomes and for the drag of a 2.85% ten-year real yield on a zero-yield asset.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +41.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year annualised price return from network issuance of roughly 0.8% a year, changes in institutional access and allocation, and reversion between the cost basis and the long-run average premium to it. No cash-flow compounding is available.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year return is roughly half a percentage point above the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield, against a modeled ten-to-ninety range spanning minus 45% to plus 78%. The Treasury offers a near-identical central expected return with incomparably less uncertainty.