Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.6
- Upside to median
- -13.4%
- Last close
- $28.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -7.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of -10% to +9%, a change in the justified trailing multiple between 15.1x and 21.7x against 20.44x today, and a 3.6% dividend yield. The high cash yield is the main reason the central estimate stays positive despite a clearly negative fair-value gap.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year annualised total return from earnings compounding at -2% to +9% a year, a terminal trailing multiple between 15.5x and 19.5x, and a 3.6% dividend yield, discounted at a 7.8% to 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- -2.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year return sits roughly two percentage points below the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield. Said plainly: the Treasury currently offers a better central expected return than this equity class with materially lower uncertainty.