China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.1
- Upside to median
- +5.1%
- Last close
- $52.82
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of -8% to +16%, a change in the justified forward multiple between 8.0x and 13.0x against the current 11.2x, and a 2.0% distribution yield. The wide range reflects tariff, governance and deflation risk rather than any momentum input.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year annualised total return from earnings compounding at 3% to 14% a year, a terminal forward multiple between 9.0x and 13.0x and a 2.0% distribution yield, discounted at a 10% to 11% USD required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +5.5%
- Basis
- direct
The largest modeled edge over the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield in this report, but it comes with the widest one-year return range of any equity class. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.3Fair | 105.1 | $52.82 | +10.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $34.24 | +10.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.3Fair | 104.0 | $22.47 | +9.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +0.3Fair | 105.0 | $25.74 | +9.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 112.0 | $4.35 | +14.0% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 110.0 | $24.69 | +13.0% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $46.58 | +12.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $16.02 | +11.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $33.19 | +8.0% |