US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.3
- Upside to median
- -5.7%
- Last close
- $767.18
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into forward earnings growth of -5% to +18%, a change in the forward multiple between 15.0x and 21.5x against roughly 19.2x today, and a shareholder yield of about 1.9% comprising roughly 1.15% dividends and 0.75% net buybacks. Long-run average equity returns are used only as an unconditional prior and are explicitly adjusted for today's starting valuation and the 4.51% risk-free rate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -7.5%
Three-year annualised total return from earnings compounding at -1% to +13.5% a year, a terminal forward multiple between 13.5x and 21.0x, and a 1.9% shareholder yield. Only partial multiple normalisation is assumed, in line with the preference for partial rather than full mean reversion.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Expected excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. Note the deliberate separation here: the expected-return edge is positive because earnings are growing, while the valuation score is clearly negative because the price paid for those earnings sits high inside the modeled fair-value distribution.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 94.3 | $767.18 | +8.0% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $169.87 | +9.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | +0.1Fair | 101.0 | $54.53 | +8.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.2Fair | 99.5 | $512.68 | +7.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.3Fair | 99.0 | $210.26 | +7.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.6Expensive | 94.0 | $168.83 | +7.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 90.0 | $281.66 | +7.0% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.9Expensive | 90.0 | $110.32 | +6.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.1Expensive | 88.0 | $741.10 | +8.5% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 80.0 | $600.52 | +9.0% |