Valuation Lens — September 22, 2026

With the 10-year real Treasury yield at 2.63% — the top percentile of the past decade — the modeled fair-value distributions place contractual cash-flow assets and deeply discounted equity markets above today's price, and place US equities, developed Pacific equities and crude oil below it.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 22, 2026Last market session Sep 22, 2026Data cutoff Sep 22, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.43%1y Treasury

A 4.43% one-year Treasury par yield, with the 10-year real yield at 2.63% in the top percentile of the past decade, sets an unusually demanding opportunity cost against which every risk asset is valued today.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.7
Cheap
Median fair value
103.2100.4–106.0
Upside to median
+3.2%
1y modeled
+5.6%-0.5% to 11.3%
vs Treasury
+1.2%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.6
Cheap
Median fair value
107.5100.6–114.6
Upside to median
+7.5%
1y modeled
+12.0%-13.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+7.6%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.5
Cheap
Median fair value
107.0100.1–114.1
Upside to median
+7.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-14.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
109.195.1–123.3
Upside to median
+9.1%
1y modeled
+9.0%-46.0% to 92.0%
vs Treasury
+4.6%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.496.1–113.0
Upside to median
+4.4%
1y modeled
+10.5%-20.0% to 39.0%
vs Treasury
+6.1%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
100.695.1–106.3
Upside to median
+0.6%
1y modeled
+7.5%-11.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+3.1%
MetalsGLD
0.0
Fair
Median fair value
100.091.4–108.3
Upside to median
-0.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-18.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
-0.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.492.7–104.0
Upside to median
-1.6%
1y modeled
+6.5%-10.5% to 21.5%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.589.4–103.4
Upside to median
-3.5%
1y modeled
+7.0%-13.0% to 25.5%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.490.7–102.0
Upside to median
-3.6%
1y modeled
+5.5%-11.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
EnergyUSO
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.284.6–101.5
Upside to median
-6.8%
1y modeled
-4.0%-34.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-8.4%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-22, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.7 Cheap	103.2 100.4–106.0	+3.2%	+5.6% -0.5% to 11.3%	+1.2%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.6 Cheap	107.5 100.6–114.6	+7.5%	+12.0% -13.0% to 33.0%	+7.6%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.5 Cheap	107.0 100.1–114.1	+7.0%	+8.0% -14.0% to 25.0%	+3.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	109.1 95.1–123.3	+9.1%	+9.0% -46.0% to 92.0%	+4.6%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	104.4 96.1–113.0	+4.4%	+10.5% -20.0% to 39.0%	+6.1%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.2 Fair	100.6 95.1–106.3	+0.6%	+7.5% -11.0% to 25.0%	+3.1%
Metals GLD	0.0 Fair	100.0 91.4–108.3	-0.0%	+4.0% -18.0% to 25.0%	-0.4%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	98.4 92.7–104.0	-1.6%	+6.5% -10.5% to 21.5%	+2.1%
US Equities SPY	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	96.5 89.4–103.4	-3.5%	+7.0% -13.0% to 25.5%	+2.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	96.4 90.7–102.0	-3.6%	+5.5% -11.0% to 20.0%	+1.1%
Energy USO	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.2 84.6–101.5	-6.8%	-4.0% -34.0% to 28.0%	-8.4%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.7Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 22.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.6Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 23.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 67%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.5Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 24.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 54%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 50%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

0.0Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 50.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 57.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 79%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 38%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources8

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
3
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
4
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory
5
BND — Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF overview
StockAnalysis
6
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — fund characteristics
The Vanguard Group
7
Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break
World Gold Council
8
Glassnode: Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Turns Positive, Echoing 2019 and 2023
The Crypto Basic

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-09-22_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.