Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.6
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Last close
- $98.78
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.3% dividend yield plus a 6% sustainable earnings growth rate plus a small valuation-convergence contribution, reduced for yen translation uncertainty on an unhedged dollar-denominated benchmark; dispersion widened for the currency component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Dividend yield plus buyback-augmented per-share earnings growth, with the modeled fair-value gap closing partially across three years and annualised; a continued rise in the payout ratio is assumed to be gradual rather than immediate.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield. For an unhedged dollar investor a material share of this edge is a currency bet rather than an equity one.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | +0.2Fair | 100.6 | $98.78 | +7.5% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +1.7Cheap | 106.0 | $49.36 | +8.6% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $110.58 | +8.2% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $181.39 | +8.0% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $104.60 | +7.4% |