Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 60–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 109.1
- Upside to median
- +9.1%
- Last close
- $48.83
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +92.0%
- P75
- +48.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -46.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry or cash flow; the median is roughly 20% convergence of the modeled cost-basis fair-value gap, with the dispersion set from realized network return variance and an explicitly fat left tail. The median is deliberately modest relative to the distribution width.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +28.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Annualised partial convergence of the cost-basis gap plus a modest adoption and issuance-decline contribution; no valuation-multiple mechanism is claimed, so the distribution stays very wide at a three-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +4.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield. The tenth percentile of the modeled one-year distribution is -46%, so this edge is compensation for genuinely extreme uncertainty rather than a superior risk-adjusted proposition.