China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 36.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.4
- Upside to median
- +4.4%
- Last close
- $54.25
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.6% dividend yield plus an 8.5% sustainable earnings growth rate, shrunk from a consensus near 10%, plus roughly 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, then reduced further for policy risk; dispersion widened to reflect the benchmark's realized return variance.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus sustainable earnings growth with roughly 45% of the modeled fair-value gap closing across three years and annualised; no full re-rating to the pre-2021 multiple is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +6.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield. The modeled tenth percentile of -20% means this edge carries materially more downside variance than the developed-market equivalents.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 104.4 | $54.25 | +10.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $25.38 | +11.2% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.3Cheap | 107.0 | $22.84 | +11.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 106.5 | $16.37 | +10.9% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $35.00 | +10.8% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $25.37 | +9.8% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $34.17 | +9.6% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $48.03 | +9.2% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $4.32 | +8.6% |