Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 57.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.4
- Upside to median
- -1.6%
- Last close
- $89.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.5%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -10.5%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.2% dividend yield plus roughly 1.3% net buyback yield plus a 5% sustainable earnings growth rate, less the modeled valuation drag, then shrunk for a multi-year record of consensus earnings under-delivery in this market.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth, less an annualised drag from partial multiple normalisation toward the market's own historical median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, and one of the narrowest in the equity complex; most of it is the dividend yield rather than valuation convergence.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.4 | $89.43 | +6.5% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +1.4Cheap | 105.0 | $47.67 | +7.8% |
| EWQ France Index | -0.3Fair | 99.0 | $44.25 | +6.6% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $69.16 | +6.4% |
| EWG Germany Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $42.65 | +6.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -1.7Expensive | 94.0 | $61.18 | +5.6% |