Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 24.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 75% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.0
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- Last close
- $93.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
75% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 4.3% distribution yield plus 3.5% funds-from-operations growth plus roughly 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap within one year, shrunk downward because near-term REIT returns are dominated by the long real rate rather than by the valuation gap.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Distribution yield plus cash-flow growth, with roughly 45% of the modeled fair-value gap closing across three years and annualised; accretive buybacks at a NAV discount are treated as a modest additional per-share growth contribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield. Because REIT cash flows are long duration, the same rate move that would deliver this edge is the one that would erase it.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.5Cheap | 107.0 | $93.62 | +8.0% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +2.1Cheap | 110.0 | $89.84 | +8.6% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.3Cheap | 106.0 | $26.44 | +7.8% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $42.50 | +7.4% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $19.91 | +7.2% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $30.18 | +6.2% |