Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 66.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.4
- Upside to median
- -3.6%
- Last close
- $29.09
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.8% blended dividend yield, the highest of any equity class in this run, plus a 4% sustainable earnings growth rate, less the modeled valuation drag; growth is held low because the region's payout ratios leave little reinvestment.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Dividend yield plus modest earnings growth, less an annualised drag from partial multiple normalisation toward the middle of each market's own historical range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
The narrowest positive modeled edge in the equity complex. With a modeled tenth percentile of -11%, a 4.43% one-year Treasury offers a competitive return at materially lower uncertainty.