US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.5
- Upside to median
- -3.5%
- Last close
- $773.38
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 7% sustainable nominal earnings growth rate, shrunk from a 30% consensus 2026 figure that reflects a cycle peak, plus a 1.1% dividend yield, less roughly 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap within one year. Dispersion is set from realized large-cap index return variance with a fatter left tail.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Sustainable earnings growth plus dividend yield, less an annualised drag from partial multiple normalisation and from partial reversion of record aggregate margins; no full reversion of either is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. On the aggregate profits-yield basis the equity market's own earnings yield is currently 0.77 percentage points below the 10-year Treasury, so this edge rests entirely on growth rather than on starting yield.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +1.7Cheap | 108.0 | $169.89 | +9.3% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $287.21 | +8.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $212.80 | +8.1% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | +0.1Fair | 100.5 | $54.80 | +7.8% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $518.00 | +7.6% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.5 | $773.38 | +7.0% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $170.27 | +6.7% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.5Expensive | 93.0 | $112.33 | +6.3% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.0Expensive | 91.0 | $747.46 | +5.9% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -3.0Exceptionally expensive | 86.0 | $607.46 | +4.9% |