Metals
Today’s price sits at the 50.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.0
- Upside to median
- -0.0%
- Last close
- $400.07
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry, with a small custody and expense drag; the median reflects the midpoint of published institutional price scenarios against the current benchmark level, adjusted for a fair-value gap of essentially zero. Dispersion is set from the realized variance of the precious and industrial metals complex.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -7.5%
A long-horizon real-price anchor with partial rather than full reversion toward the pre-2024 real level, offset by continuing official-sector accumulation and by multi-year supply deficits in platinum, silver and copper.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- -0.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median return sits marginally below the 1-year Treasury par yield. On this evidence Treasury bills offer a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty than the metals complex.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $400.07 | +4.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | +1.5Cheap | 108.0 | $16.62 | +5.6% |
| CPER Copper | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $41.43 | +4.8% |
| SLV Silver | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $60.73 | +4.6% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $26.17 | +4.4% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $62.67 | +4.2% |
| GDX Gold Miners | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $97.83 | +2.8% |