Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 23.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.5
- Upside to median
- +7.5%
- Last close
- $61.10
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.9% index dividend yield plus a 12% sustainable earnings growth rate, shrunk down from 17% consensus, plus roughly 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap within one year; dispersion set from emerging-market index return variance including a currency component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Dividend yield plus sustainable earnings growth, with roughly 45% of the modeled fair-value gap closing across three years and annualised; partial rather than full multiple convergence is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.43%
- Expected excess
- +7.6%
- Basis
- direct
The widest modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury in this run, but also one of the widest return distributions; the tenth percentile still sits well below zero.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.6Cheap | 107.5 | $61.10 | +12.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +2.1Cheap | 110.0 | $102.50 | +12.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +3.0Exceptionally cheap | 118.0 | $38.26 | +14.1% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +2.8Exceptionally cheap | 114.0 | $69.15 | +13.3% |
| INDA India Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $48.29 | +10.9% |
| EWY South Korea Index | 0.0Fair | 99.0 | $192.62 | +10.3% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $115.11 | +9.7% |