Valuation Lens — September 16, 2026

With the 1-year Treasury at 4.45%, only China, emerging-market equities and core bonds price below modeled fair value; US equities, Pacific ex-Japan and oil sit well above it.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 16, 2026Last market session Sep 16, 2026Data cutoff Sep 16, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.45%1y Treasury

A 4.45% one-year Treasury par yield, a 5.01% 10-year yield and a 2.68% 10-year real yield (top of their 10-year ranges) set a high hurdle for every risk asset.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
106.095.9–116.8
Upside to median
+6.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-17.6% to 32.4%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.095.6–114.4
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.1% to 29.8%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.098.6–103.7
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+5.3%-0.5% to 11.1%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.092.3–106.4
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-12.2% to 23.7%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
97.078.1–118.6
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-48.3% to 67.1%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.089.3–102.7
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.7% to 24.4%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.088.3–101.7
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-13.7% to 23.4%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
MetalsGLD
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.079.9–102.8
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+2.0%-21.1% to 26.4%
vs Treasury
-2.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
92.085.3–98.7
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-12.9% to 20.4%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
90.082.6–98.1
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-15.5% to 22.9%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
EnergyUSO
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
85.075.6–95.8
Upside to median
-15.0%
1y modeled
-2.0%-40.4% to 42.9%
vs Treasury
-6.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-16, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	106.0 95.9–116.8	+6.0%	+8.0% -17.6% to 32.4%	+3.6%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	105.0 95.6–114.4	+5.0%	+8.0% -15.1% to 29.8%	+3.6%
Fixed Income BND	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	101.0 98.6–103.7	+1.0%	+5.3% -0.5% to 11.1%	+0.9%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.2 Fair	99.0 92.3–106.4	-1.0%	+7.0% -12.2% to 23.7%	+2.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	97.0 78.1–118.6	-3.0%	+3.0% -48.3% to 67.1%	-1.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 89.3–102.7	-4.0%	+6.5% -12.7% to 24.4%	+2.1%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	95.0 88.3–101.7	-5.0%	+5.5% -13.7% to 23.4%	+1.1%
Metals GLD	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	92.0 79.9–102.8	-8.0%	+2.0% -21.1% to 26.4%	-2.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.7 Expensive	92.0 85.3–98.7	-8.0%	+5.0% -12.9% to 20.4%	+0.6%
US Equities SPY	-1.8 Expensive	90.0 82.6–98.1	-10.0%	+5.0% -15.5% to 22.9%	+0.6%
Energy USO	-2.0 Expensive	85.0 75.6–95.8	-15.0%	-2.0% -40.4% to 42.9%	-6.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 67%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 79%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 54%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources35

1
Earnings Insight (September 11, 2026)
FactSet
2
Guide to the Markets – U.S. 3Q 2026
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
3
Shiller PE Ratio
multpl.com
4
MSCI Europe Index (USD) Factsheet
MSCI
5
MSCI Japan Index (JPY) Factsheet
MSCI
6
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD) Factsheet
MSCI
7
MSCI China Index Factsheet
MSCI
8
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index Factsheet
MSCI
9
2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions – USD matrix
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
10
BND – Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
Vanguard
11
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)
BlackRock iShares
12
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)
BlackRock iShares
13
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
14
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
15
VNQ – Vanguard Real Estate ETF
Vanguard
16
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
Nareit
17
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
18
The State of REITs: August 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital
19
Live Gold Price Chart
Kitco
20
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
State Street Global Advisors
21
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: Central Banks
World Gold Council
22
Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1 2026
World Gold Council
23
Goldman Sachs reduced gold price target
Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto)
24
Oil prices today: Brent, WTI, Hormuz and the Iran war
CNBC
25
Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
26
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
State Street Global Advisors
27
Bitcoin price
CoinGecko
28
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio
Newhedge
29
Bitcoin Realized Price
Newhedge
30
Ethereum MVRV Ratio
Glassnode Studio
31
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
BlackRock iShares
32
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
BlackRock iShares
33
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)
BlackRock iShares
34
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
BlackRock iShares
35
MSCI India Index (USD) Factsheet
MSCI

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-09-16-260916001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.