Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 36.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $59.18
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-16
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.8%
- P75
- +19.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -4.1%
- P10
- -15.1%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.0%) + cycle-haircut EPS growth (about 5%, vs about 51% implied) + small partial multiple convergence; wide dispersion for semiconductor-cycle and USD risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Income plus normalized earnings growth plus partial valuation convergence; cross-checked against the JPM 2026 LTCMA EM assumption of 7.8%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $97.14 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $108.40 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $175.54 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.48 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $67.55 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.46 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $59.18 | +8.0% |