US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $754.05
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.9%
- P75
- +14.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.8%
- P10
- -15.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 1.1%) + NTM EPS growth haircut to about 11% for margin risk + multiple compression (about -7%) as a partial, not full, move toward rate-adjusted fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -5.5%
Income plus normalized EPS growth with partial margin and multiple normalization; cross-checked against the JPM 2026 LTCMA US large-cap assumption of 6.7% (set at lower starting yields).
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a nearly equal expected return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $515.22 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $283.92 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.72 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $212.28 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $545.56 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 90.0 | $754.05 | +5.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.93 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.71 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.77 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $110.18 | — |