China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 106.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Last close
- $52.31
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.4%
- P75
- +20.8%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -17.6%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.3%) + haircut EPS growth (about 6%, vs about 30% implied by consensus) + neutral multiple change, with wide two-piece dispersion reflecting policy and geopolitical risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Income plus normalized earnings growth plus partial (not full) convergence of the discount; cross-checked against the JPM 2026 LTCMA China domestic assumption of 7.7%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.56 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.24 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.28 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.06 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.18 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.28 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.92 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.24 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $52.31 | +8.0% |