Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $88.63
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-16
74/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.7%
- P75
- +15.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.1%
- P10
- -12.2%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.8%) + haircut EPS growth (about 6%, vs about 18% implied) + slight multiple compression (-1%), USD-based.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Income plus normalized earnings growth with a stable multiple; cross-checked against the JPM 2026 LTCMA euro-area assumption of 7.8%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments