Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $97.01
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-16
73/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.4%
- P75
- +15.9%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.6%
- P10
- -12.7%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 2.5%) + haircut EPS growth (about 5%) + mild multiple compression (-1%); USD-based, so it includes yen risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Shareholder yield plus normalized growth with partial multiple normalization; cross-checked against the JPM 2026 LTCMA Japan assumption of 8.8%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments