Energy
Today’s price sits at the 82.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 85.0
- Upside to median
- -15.0%
- Last close
- $156.17
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +42.9%
- P75
- +21.6%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -22.2%
- P10
- -40.4%
48% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-based return: collateral yield (about 4%) plus roll yield from backwardation, less a decline in the futures curve beyond what is already priced as the disruption premium fades toward EIA STEO levels; very wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Normalization of crude toward the EIA 2027 path (about $74 Brent) and long-run marginal cost, partly offset by collateral yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- -6.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled edge is clearly negative.