Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.11
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-16
85/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.1%
- P75
- +8.3%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +2.3%
- P10
- -0.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting YTM 5.27% less expected credit losses, plus a duration x yield-change distribution (1-sigma about 80bp over one year) and a small spread-widening drag.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.3%
- P75
- +6.2%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting-yield anchor with reinvestment across rate scenarios; dispersion shrinks as the horizon approaches portfolio duration.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.11 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.42 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.73 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.45 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.24 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.39 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.88 | — |