Metals
Today’s price sits at the 69.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $391.74
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.4%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -10.1%
- P10
- -21.1%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; median reflects official-sector demand support offset by high real yields and partial convergence toward modeled fair value; fund expense drag included.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Long-run gold return prior near inflation plus a demand premium, adjusted for the starting real price being historically extreme.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; negative modeled edge vs Treasuries.