Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $28.49
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-16
69/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.4%
- P75
- +13.1%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -4.4%
- P10
- -12.9%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (3.4%) + EPS growth (about 5%) + multiple compression (-3.5%) toward growth-adjusted fair value; USD-based.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Income plus low nominal growth with partial multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled edge for equity-level risk.