Valuation Lens — September 10, 2026

Only bonds screen near fair value; oil, Developed Pacific and US equities trade furthest above today's modeled fair value with 10-year real yields at 2.55%.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 10, 2026Data cutoff Sep 10, 2026, 9:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.28%1y Treasury

The 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, with an upward-sloping curve (2Y 4.56%, 10Y 4.95%) and a 2.55% 10-year real yield at the top of its 10-year range.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
100.397.7–102.7
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+5.2%-2.5% to 12.9%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.391.8–105.2
Upside to median
-1.7%
1y modeled
+8.0%-13.8% to 29.8%
vs Treasury
+3.7%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.588.2–107.4
Upside to median
-2.5%
1y modeled
+7.6%-27.0% to 42.2%
vs Treasury
+3.3%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.087.4–105.6
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+6.3%-16.8% to 29.4%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.077.5–108.3
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-67.5% to 73.5%
vs Treasury
-1.3%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.590.3–102.7
Upside to median
-3.5%
1y modeled
+6.8%-17.6% to 31.2%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
MetalsGLD
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.381.3–102.6
Upside to median
-7.7%
1y modeled
+1.0%-22.1% to 24.1%
vs Treasury
-3.3%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
94.088.0–100.8
Upside to median
-6.0%
1y modeled
+7.3%-14.5% to 29.1%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
89.581.4–98.2
Upside to median
-10.5%
1y modeled
+6.4%-14.1% to 26.9%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
90.084.1–96.3
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+6.2%-18.2% to 30.6%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
EnergyUSO
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
81.571.1–93.2
Upside to median
-18.5%
1y modeled
+0.8%-47.9% to 49.5%
vs Treasury
-3.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-10, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.2 Fair	100.3 97.7–102.7	+0.3%	+5.2% -2.5% to 12.9%	+0.9%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	98.3 91.8–105.2	-1.7%	+8.0% -13.8% to 29.8%	+3.7%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.5 88.2–107.4	-2.5%	+7.6% -27.0% to 42.2%	+3.3%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	96.0 87.4–105.6	-4.0%	+6.3% -16.8% to 29.4%	+2.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	92.0 77.5–108.3	-8.0%	+3.0% -67.5% to 73.5%	-1.3%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.5 90.3–102.7	-3.5%	+6.8% -17.6% to 31.2%	+2.5%
Metals GLD	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	92.3 81.3–102.6	-7.7%	+1.0% -22.1% to 24.1%	-3.3%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.4 Expensive	94.0 88.0–100.8	-6.0%	+7.3% -14.5% to 29.1%	+3.0%
US Equities SPY	-1.8 Expensive	89.5 81.4–98.2	-10.5%	+6.4% -14.1% to 26.9%	+2.1%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.1 Expensive	90.0 84.1–96.3	-10.0%	+6.2% -18.2% to 30.6%	+1.9%
Energy USO	-2.1 Expensive	81.5 71.1–93.2	-18.5%	+0.8% -47.9% to 49.5%	-3.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 79%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 69%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 85.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 85.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

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FactSet
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S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
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Invesco QQQ Trust fund page
Invesco
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Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fund page
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GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast (July 2026)
GMO
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Shiller PE Ratio
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10
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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) fund page
State Street Global Advisors
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State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) fund page
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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Index Factsheet: MSCI Japan Index (USD)
MSCI
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Japan Outlook (September 2026)
Asset Management One
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Japan Inc. raises full-year profit forecast to 14% jump on AI and chips
Nikkei Asia
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Japan share buybacks soar, driven by Sony, Hitachi
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WisdomTree
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iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF (JPXN) fund page
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iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF (SCJ) fund page
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Index Factsheet: MSCI Australia Index (USD)
MSCI
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Australian Reporting Season Preview (FY26): 7 things that will decide August
FactSet
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BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares MSCI New Zealand ETF (ENZL) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (ES3) fund page
State Street Global Advisors
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Index Factsheet: MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD)
MSCI
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MSCI
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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RBC Wealth Management
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MSCI
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Index Factsheet: MSCI Korea Index
MSCI
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Index Factsheet: MSCI India Index
MSCI
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Index Factsheet: MSCI Brazil Index
MSCI
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Index Factsheet: MSCI South Africa Index
MSCI
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BlackRock iShares
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MSCI
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MSCI
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Hang Seng Index factsheet
Hang Seng Indexes
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Hang Seng Indexes
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iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) advisor fund page
Vanguard
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iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) fund page
BlackRock iShares
64
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), ICE Data Indices
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ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), ICE Data Indices
69
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (July 29, 2026)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
70
Summary of Economic Projections (June 17, 2026)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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US corporate default risk in 2026
Moody's
72
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker (Q2 2026)
Nareit
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REIT Industry Financial Snapshot (August 2026)
Nareit
74
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) advisor fund page
Vanguard
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The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) fund page
State Street Global Advisors
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iShares Global REIT ETF (REET) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) fund page
BlackRock iShares
78
iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR) fund page
Pacer ETFs
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Values Up, But Higher Rates Are a Headwind
Green Street
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Equinix Reports Second Quarter Results, Raises 2026 Guidance and Long-Term Outlook
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Short-Term Energy Outlook data browser (September 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets (September 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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IEA revises down 2026 oil demand forecast
Oil & Gas Journal
85
Oil prices forecast
J.P. Morgan Global Research
86
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, First Quarter 2026
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87
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fund page
State Street Global Advisors
88
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fund page
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89
Brent crude oil price
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90
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas (September 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
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92
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (DHHNGSP)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), EIA
93
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026
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94
Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1'26
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Gold is forecast to climb as central banks buy the precious metal
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96
Gold prices forecast
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VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) portfolio
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World Silver Survey 2026 press release
The Silver Institute
99
Platinum market surplus of 265 koz forecast for 2026; inventories remain critically depleted
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100
LME official prices and stocks
Westmetall
101
ICSG forecasts copper market surplus in 2026 and 2027
IndexBox
102
iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) fund page
BlackRock iShares
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CoinGecko simple price API (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB)
CoinGecko
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Coin Metrics community API: asset metrics (CapMVRVCur, PriceUSD)
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Hashrate Index
Luxor Hashrate Index
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Bitcoin Mining Report Q1 2026
CoinShares
107
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) fund page
BlackRock iShares
108
iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) fund page
BlackRock iShares
109
Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL)
Bitwise
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Canary XRP ETF (XRPC)
Canary Capital
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VanEck BNB ETF (VBNB) overview
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Lido stETH APR (7-day SMA) API
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Platinum price
Trading Economics

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-09-10-260910001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.