Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $59.94
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.4%
- P75
- +18.4%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- -5.8%
- P10
- -16.8%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield net of issuance (1.9%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from an 18% annual volatility assumption (USD).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.7%
- P75
- +12.4%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- -1.6%
- P10
- -7.9%
Net cash yield plus 4.0% sustainable EPS growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $59.94 | +6.3% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $99.22 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $108.92 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $182.78 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $38.56 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $69.54 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.11 | — |