Metals
Today’s price sits at the 69.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.3
- Upside to median
- -7.7%
- Last close
- $396.36
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.1%
- P75
- +13.1%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -11.1%
- P10
- -22.1%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No yield; long-run real appreciation near inflation (2.5%) less fund expenses (0.4%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from an 18% annual volatility assumption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.4%
- P75
- +8.1%
- Median
- +1.1%
- P25
- -5.9%
- P10
- -12.2%
Same building blocks with 38.6% cumulative partial convergence over three years; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- -3.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); the Treasury offers a higher modeled median with lower uncertainty.