Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.3
- Upside to median
- -1.7%
- Last close
- $89.42
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.8%
- P75
- +19.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -13.8%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (3.8%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (4.5%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 17% annual volatility assumption (USD).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.2%
- P75
- +13.2%
- Median
- +6.6%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Shareholder yield plus 3.0% sustainable EPS growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence over three years; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.3 | $89.42 | +8.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.62 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $60.30 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $44.62 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.53 | — |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | —Unavailable | — | $68.98 | — |