Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 64.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.5
- Upside to median
- -3.5%
- Last close
- $94.12
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-10
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.2%
- P75
- +19.6%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -17.6%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (3.3%) plus FFO growth (4.0%, below the recent +12.4% pace) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 19% annual volatility assumption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.9%
- P75
- +14.2%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -0.6%
- P10
- -7.3%
Yield plus 4.0% FFO growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.5 | $94.12 | +6.8% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.89 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $20.88 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $92.00 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $30.03 | — |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.05 | — |