Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.3
- Upside to median
- +0.3%
- Last close
- $71.27
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-10
78/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.9%
- P75
- +9.2%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +1.2%
- P10
- -2.5%
81% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield-to-maturity carry (about 5.15%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 6% annual volatility assumption for the aggregate bond index.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.9%
- P75
- +7.1%
- Median
- +5.1%
- P25
- +3.1%
- P10
- +1.3%
Starting yield as the dominant 3-year anchor with pull-to-par dampening of annualized dispersion (3.0%).
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.2Fair | 100.3 | $71.27 | +5.2% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.62 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.18 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.36 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.42 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.33 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.78 | — |