China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.5
- Upside to median
- -2.5%
- Last close
- $52.80
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +42.2%
- P75
- +25.8%
- Median
- +7.6%
- P25
- -10.6%
- P10
- -27.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (3.0%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 27% annual volatility assumption (USD).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +26.7%
- P75
- +17.2%
- Median
- +6.7%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -13.3%
Cash yield plus 4.0% sustainable EPS growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Modeled excess
- +3.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, with very wide dispersion.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.5 | $52.80 | +7.6% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.88 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.37 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.62 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.16 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.03 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.47 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.35 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.44 | — |