Energy
Today’s price sits at the 85.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 81.5
- Upside to median
- -18.5%
- Last close
- $158.38
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +49.5%
- P75
- +26.4%
- Median
- +0.8%
- P25
- -24.8%
- P10
- -47.9%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Collateral T-bill yield (3.9%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value, with no assumed risk premium; futures roll yield not modeled because the curve was not verified. Dispersion from a 38% annual volatility assumption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +29.4%
- P75
- +16.1%
- Median
- +1.3%
- P25
- -13.5%
- P10
- -26.8%
Collateral yield plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence over three years; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- -3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); the Treasury offers a higher modeled median with far lower uncertainty.