US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 79.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.5
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- Last close
- $757.83
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-10
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.9%
- P75
- +17.2%
- Median
- +6.4%
- P25
- -4.4%
- P10
- -14.1%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (2.1%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (6.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 16% annual volatility assumption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +11.9%
- Median
- +5.7%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -6.1%
Shareholder yield plus 5.0% normalizing EPS growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 89.5 | $757.83 | +6.4% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $520.75 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $287.70 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $708.69 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $213.17 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $560.28 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.87 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.55 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $165.66 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.96 | — |