Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 72.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $96.44
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.1%
- P75
- +18.8%
- Median
- +7.3%
- P25
- -4.2%
- P10
- -14.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend plus buyback yield (3.2%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 17% annual volatility assumption (USD, unhedged).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.4%
- P25
- -0.2%
- P10
- -6.2%
Cash yield plus 4.0% sustainable EPS growth plus 38.6% cumulative partial convergence; volatility scaled by square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.28%
- Expected excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1Y median return minus the 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.