Valuation Lens — November 12, 2026

Modeled fair value sits above market for China & Hong Kong, Fixed Income and Japan, and well below market for Energy, Developed Pacific and Metals.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 12, 2026Last market session Nov 12, 2026Data cutoff Nov 12, 2026, 11:35 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.65%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.65% is the annual hurdle, while the 10-year at 5.10% and the 10-year real yield at 2.86% sit near the top of their 20-year ranges and raise required returns on every long-duration asset.

10y Treasury: 5.1%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
106.896.4–116.7
Upside to median
+6.8%
1y modeled
+9.0%-20.0% to 36.0%
vs Treasury
+4.4%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.098.9–103.0
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+5.4%0.0% to 10.6%
vs Treasury
+0.8%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.696.3–109.1
Upside to median
+2.6%
1y modeled
+7.5%-12.5% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.794.8–108.9
Upside to median
+1.7%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.4%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.185.1–122.3
Upside to median
+3.1%
1y modeled
+6.0%-45.0% to 70.0%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
101.094.3–107.7
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-13.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.389.2–103.3
Upside to median
-3.7%
1y modeled
+5.5%-16.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.988.4–101.2
Upside to median
-5.1%
1y modeled
+5.0%-15.5% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.4%
MetalsGLD
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
91.581.6–100.6
Upside to median
-8.5%
1y modeled
+0.5%-20.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
-4.2%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
93.486.9–99.7
Upside to median
-6.6%
1y modeled
+4.5%-14.0% to 21.5%
vs Treasury
-0.2%
EnergyUSO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
85.474.3–97.0
Upside to median
-14.6%
1y modeled
-6.0%-38.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-10.7%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-12, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	106.8 96.4–116.7	+6.8%	+9.0% -20.0% to 36.0%	+4.4%
Fixed Income BND	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	101.0 98.9–103.0	+1.0%	+5.4% 0.0% to 10.6%	+0.8%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	102.6 96.3–109.1	+2.6%	+7.5% -12.5% to 26.0%	+2.9%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.7 94.8–108.9	+1.7%	+8.0% -15.0% to 29.0%	+3.4%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	103.1 85.1–122.3	+3.1%	+6.0% -45.0% to 70.0%	+1.4%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.2 Fair	101.0 94.3–107.7	+1.0%	+7.0% -13.0% to 25.0%	+2.4%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	96.3 89.2–103.3	-3.7%	+5.5% -16.0% to 26.0%	+0.9%
US Equities SPY	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	94.9 88.4–101.2	-5.1%	+5.0% -15.5% to 23.0%	+0.4%
Metals GLD	-1.4 Expensive	91.5 81.6–100.6	-8.5%	+0.5% -20.0% to 21.0%	-4.2%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.6 Expensive	93.4 86.9–99.7	-6.6%	+4.5% -14.0% to 21.5%	-0.2%
Energy USO	-1.8 Expensive	85.4 74.3–97.0	-14.6%	-6.0% -38.0% to 28.0%	-10.7%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 32.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 49%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 39.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 68%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 54%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 85%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 73.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 39%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 33%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources9

1
Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years
FactSet
2
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet
3
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets (November 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
4
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
5
Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
6
P/E Ratios by Country 2026
Siblis Research
7
Bitcoin Falls Below Its One-Year Median
Axel Adler Jr.
8
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker Q2 2026
Nareit
9
Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 Outlook
World Gold Council

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl-2026-11-12-001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.