US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.9
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- Last close
- $757.12
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-12
78/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -15.5%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield near 2.5% plus high-single-digit forward EPS growth, less partial multiple and margin normalization toward median fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year EPS projections with shareholder yield and a partially normalized exit multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the modeled edge is close to zero, so the 1-year Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $522.47 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $278.44 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $688.22 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $220.72 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $502.02 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 94.9 | $757.12 | +5.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.21 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.44 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $187.83 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $120.46 | — |