Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 63.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.3
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- Last close
- $96.44
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield near 4% plus low-to-mid single-digit FFO growth, less modest multiple compression toward median fair value; high sensitivity to long-term yields.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with refinancing costs phased in.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and the Treasury offers a similar expected return with far lower uncertainty.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $27.08 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $16.20 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $94.18 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.58 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $96.44 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.36 | — |