China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 32.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 106.8
- Upside to median
- +6.8%
- Last close
- $49.82
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with a wide downside tail for policy, deflation and geopolitical shocks; US-dollar returns.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with partial rather than full multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +4.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and earned with far higher uncertainty than the Treasury.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.3Cheap | 108.8 | $24.10 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.85 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +0.3Fair | 101.8 | $30.45 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.86 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $39.12 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.17 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.48 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $22.91 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $49.82 | +9.0% |